DEALING WITH LATE SCRATCHES AND CHANGES

Are late scratches under-accounted for? Yes, absolutely! Take advantage of other bettors’ confusion or misguided reliance on morning line odds by focusing on any contender that becomes a standout after late scratches, and get a leg up on the players that made their decisions the night before and/or earlier in the day.

How many times does this happen? You handicap a full field on the morning of a race. There are:

– 16 entries, with 12 starters and 4 Also Eligibles (AEs).

– At noon, three late scratches are announced from the main field, BUT

– Three of the four AEs also decide to scratch anyway.

– Thus, 10 runners remain.

– But the original morning line odds reflect a comparison of 16 runners, yet 40% of the field is now not competing.

This is still a fairly large field, but with enough pieces of the puzzle missing to make it worth taking a fresh look at the situation.

What hasn’t changed? A fit contender is still a fit contender. A horse suited to the distance is still suited to the distance. A good workout is still a good workout.  Barring late rider changes, the connections are unchanged. This data can be studied the night before without concern about the potential effects of late scratches.

And what has changed due to the late scratches?

Pace, post position, fair odds and exotics pay out value.

Pace scenarios must be re-evaluated. The original field may have included three or four speed horses with a speed duel anticipated. Each speed horse would be at a disadvantage, either involved in an early chase or forced to rate to avoid the duel. But now a single speedster may remain after late scratches, resulting in a completely new pace scenario and much improved chances for the surviving entry.

Post positions must also be re-evaluated. It’s an obvious but often overlooked fact that if the inside horses scratch, a mid-pack runner could now be starting in the rail post position, while a horse with a terrible outside post may now find itself with a much better chance from a mid-gate post position. In the above scenario, #12 could be breaking from post 9, and #16 could draw in as post 10.

And most importantly, when the morning line favorite scratches, the whole situation changes. The entire race must be re-evaluated from both the perspective of how the race will unfold and how the public will bet without the morning line favorite.

But people still cling to the morning line as a guide, even though the situation has drastically changed and the morning line odds are now horribly off base!

Of the remaining contenders, bet any that become standouts after the scratches. Take a fresh look at the remaining entrants. Set aside your previous conclusions and re-evaluate the race based only on the horses that will enter the starting gate.

Requirements to play this angle:

– Late scratches occur, sometimes in large numbers due to weather.

– Some handicapping variables are not affected by late scratches like evaluating fitness, workouts, distance and the horse’s connections.

– However, pace, post position, fair odds and exotics value are affected by a shrinking field.

– If the morning line favorite scratches, the entire race must be re-evaluated from both the perspective of how the race will unfold and how to bet.

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

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