$250,000 Sam F. Davis (G3) Tampa Bay Downs

Race 10 (Saturday, February 10, 2018: 4:52 p.m./ET; 1:52 p.m./PT)
Mile and a sixteenth on the main track (three-year-olds)

Big name jockeys and trainers are well represented in this Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race which awards 10 valuable Kentucky Derby (G1) points to the winner, so let’s see if we can figure out who has what it takes to stamp himself as a player to keep an eye on as we move down the Derby trail:

#1 NAVY ARMED GUARD is a maiden facing winners and comes into race this off a solid second place finish as the betting favorite to the well-regarded Todd Pletcher trainee ROAD TO DAMASCUS. Won’t be an easy task.

#2 FLAMEAWAY is fresh off a win in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes on turf at Gulfstream last month. Although this guy has done his best work on turf, he won the Skidmore Stakes over a muddy track at Saratoga last summer. Simple question is whether he has the class to beat the best in here.

#3 VINO ROSSO makes his stakes debut after defeating allowance company over this track as the 1/10 favorite. This $410,000 son of Curlin has always been highly thought of by his connections. A legit contender from the Pletcher barn.

#4 SEPTIMIUS SEVERUS is making his third lifetime start while also facing stakes company for the first time. He broke his maiden against a large field of runners on November 25 at Aqueduct and was last seen running second to Derby contender IMPACT PLAYER. Eclipse award winning jockey Jose Ortiz rides for the first time. 

#5 HOLLYOOD STAR makes his three-year-old debut after finishing midpack while starting from an impossible wide post in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Before that effort, he finished second in both the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs and the Saratoga Special (G2) at Saratoga.

#6 CATHOLIC BOY finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) before his most recent afternoon appearance, a four-and-three-quarter length romp in the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct. Note the second place finisher in that race, AVERY ISLAND, came back to win the Withers (G3) last weekend. The one to beat.

#7 VOUCH broke his maiden impressively at Laurel Park before running a distant third to CATHOLIC BOY in the Remsen (G2). Joel Rosario rode this colt last time out but opts to ride #5 HOLLYWOOD STAR, so top Tampa Bay Downs rider Daniel Centeno takes the reins.

SELECTIONS

1. #6 CATHOLIC BOY – Improving every start.
2. #5 HOLLYWOOD STAR – Well spotted for his 2018 debut.
3. #3 VINO ROSSO – Expensive Pletcher purchase needs to be considered.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #2 FLAMEAWAY – Nice win on turf at Gulfstream last time out.

WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll key my top pick over my second and third selections in exactas.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$25 Exacta: #6 CATHOLIC BOY over #3 VINO ROSSO and #5 HOLLYWOOD STAR ($50).

(Bankroll at -$114.00 after 2018 Week #1 Based on $50 Wagers; -$114.00 last Newsletter).

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