$150,000 Daytona (G3) – Santa Anita

Race 4 (Saturday, February 24, 2018: 5:00 p.m./ET; 2:00 p.m./PT)

About six and one-half furlongs on turf (four-year-olds and upward)

Trainer Peter Miller has become a dominant force in Southern California and is represented by three of the seven runners ready to rock and roll down the hillside turf course in the feature race at Santa Anita this Saturday, the Daytona Stakes (G3). Miller’s most notable entrant is STORMY LIBERAL, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) winner, making his 2018 debut. Let’s analyze the field beginning with the inside post position:

#1 FABOZZI hasn’t been seen since a fourth place finish going a mile in the Thunder Road Stakes (G3) last April. Two of this gelding’s three lifetime wins have come on this Santa Anita turf course, but note he finished fourth (beaten two lengths) to #7 STORMY LIBERAL and #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC in a downhill sprint last year. Even though his trainer, Mark Glatt, wins at a high 26% clip with his trainees making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days, it won’t be an easy task to win this race off the lengthy vacation.

#2 TOMBELAINE ships in to Southern California for trainer Catherine Day-Phillips off a fourth place finish in the five-furlong Gulfstream Park Sprint, in which the second place finisher in that race came back to win a stake. Hall of Famer Mike Smith takes the call. Interesting.

#3 WHAT A VIEW makes his 2018 debut after an eight-and-a-half month break for the Kenneth Black barn. This gelding has plenty of class, having won the Frank Kilroe Mile (G1) in 2016 and only losing by a head in the 2017 edition. He seems to want to run a bit farther than this and according to Black, this is a prep run for a route race down the road.

#4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI comes off a snappy four-and-a-half length win going down the hill in his So. Cal debut last month. Not often you see runners winning by that large of a margin on the turf, and now he makes his second start on the course while facing a deeper field. Tougher spot, yes, but major player off the big win nonetheless.

#5 CALCULATOR ran outstanding in the Clockers Corner Stakes on January 28, setting fast fractions early and motoring home late for a fast-paced win. He is undefeated (three-for-three) when racing down the hill. Another contender from the Peter Miller barn.

#6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC makes his second start off a six-month break for trainer Bob Hess Jr. This gelding put up a good effort in the Clockers Corner, sitting off the pace before making a nice run down the lane to complete the trifecta. He hits the board a lot more often than he wins and keep in mind that he has finished behind CALCULATOR in both starts they’ve met.

#7 STORMY LIBERAL makes his 2018 debut and rounds out the trio of runners for trainer Peter Miller. This guy won a thriller two starts ago, scoring at 30/1 in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) before traveling to Hong Kong one month later and finishing well behind in a Group 1. He is seven-for-12 down the hill, but how much did the Hong Kong trip take out of him?

SELECTIONS

1. #4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI – Big win last month on this course.
2. #5 CALCULATOR – Three for three down the hill.
3. #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC – Consistent sort a good one to use in exotics.

LONGSHOT VAUE PLAY- #2 TOMBELAINE – Shipper merits respect.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my four selections in exactas and trifectas and make a $2 win bet on my longshot value play.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$2 Exacta Box: #2 TOMBELAINE and #4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI and #5 CALCULATOR and #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC ($24).

$1 Trifecta Box: #2 TOMBELAINE and #4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI and #5 CALCULATOR and #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC ($24).

$2 Win: #2 TOMBELAINE

(Bankroll at -$184.00 after 2018 Week #2 Based on $50 Wagers; -$70.00 last Newsletter).

 

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