$200,000 La Prevoyante (G3) – Gulfstream Park

Race 3 (Saturday, January 27, 2018: 12:30 p.m./ET; 9:30 a.m./PT)

Mile and a half on the turf (fillies and mares, four-years-old and upward)

Seven mares (no fillies) will travel twelve panels on the Gulfstream Park turf in this marathon event. Let’s analyze each runner in post position order:

#1 MISS NANCY was a non-threatening fifth in an allowance race over this turf course last time out. She has never run farther than a mile-and-seventy yards but she is bred to run all day, as her sire is ARCH and she is out of a FUSAICHI PEGASUS mare.

#2 SUMMERSAULT looks to snap a six-race losing streak. Her last appearance came in the Long Island Handicap (G3) two-and-a-half months ago, where she ran fourth as the 5/1 third choice. You have to go all the way back to April to find her last win, which came in the Orchid Stakes (G3) over this turf course, where she is 3-for-6 lifetime.                                         

#3 BEAULY (GB) is another one making her second start off a two-and-a-half month break. In her most recent start on December 30, this daughter of SEA THE STARS finished fourth in a minor stakes race over this turf course. Two starts back, she only lost by a length-and-a-quarter to WAR FLAG in the Flower Bowl Invitational (G1), and finished fourth to multiple Grade I winner MISS TEMPLE CITY three starts back. Hot riding Luis Saez gets the mount. He won seven races on Wednesday.

#4 DARING DUCHESS defeated #3 BEAULY in the Via Borghese Stakes over this turf course last time out. She went wire-to-wire that afternoon, so expect her to flash early speed again today. Jockey Jose Ortiz teams up with trainer Mike Maker, and they win at a 21% clip together.  

#5 TEXTING finished three lengths behind #4 DARING DUCHESS in the Via Borghese Stakes, so she’ll have to make up a few lengths on that rival. Her only try at this mile-and-a-half distance resulted in a good third place finish in The Long Island Handicap (G3) two starts ago. 

#6 TARALENA went off at 31/1 in the Via Borghese Stakes and finished behind three rivals signed on here (#3 BEAULY, #4 DARING DUCHESS and #5 TEXTING). Her last victory came four starts back in a ten-furlong allowance race at Belmont Park. She’ll need to improve to win this race.

#7 APPLE BETTY (IRE) was a convincing winner of the Dowager Stakes (G3) at Keeneland when last seen in October. She carries high weight of 123 lbs. and sports a bullet half-mile drill heading into this race and trainer Shug McGaughey III wins at a 17% clip with runners making their first start off a layoff between 61-180 days. With her best race, this five-year-old mare is a main contender.

SELECTIONS

1. #7 APPLE BETTY – Big win in the Dowager (G3) makes her the one to beat.
2. #4 DARING DUCHESS – Win in the Via Borghese was a beauty.
3. #3 BEAULY – Finished behind WAR FLAG and MISS TEMPLE CITY in prior starts.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #2 SUMMERSAULT – The ‘horse for course’.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #7 APPLE BETTY

 

 

 

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