$175,000 Hurricane Bertie (G3) – Gulfstream Park

Race 9 (Saturday, January 27, 2018: 3:38 p.m./ET; 12:38 p.m./PT)

Seven furlongs on the main track (fillies and mares, four-years-old and upward)

#7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL is the queen of Gulfstream Park, with seven wins from 11 lifetime starts over the South Florida main track. She faces a full field of 11 other fillies and mares set to contest her favorite distance, seven furlongs. Will she make her eighth lifetime trip to the Gulfstream winner’s circle or will one of the other fillies and mares spoil the party? Let’s do our best to answer that question:

#1 MARLEY’S FREEDOM ships to Florida for trainer Bob Hess Jr. after a fourth place finish behind UNIQUE BELLA, PARADISE WOODS and next out Grade 2 winner MOPOTISM in the La Brea Stakes (G1). The field she faces today is much easier, but she’ll have to overcome the undesirable rail post position. Nonetheless, the drop in class makes her an interesting item. Her jockey today, big money rider Mike Smith, was aboard this gal when she won an allowance race at Del Mar two starts ago.

#2 JORDAN’S HENNY makes her first start in four months since a third place finish in the Dogwood Stakes at Churchill Downs. In terms of her speed figures, there are others in here that have run much higher numbers. She’ll need to run the race of her life to make an impact.

#3 RICH MOMMY has won four of her last five races, including last time out when she defeated #6 BODACIOUS BABE and six others in the Sugar Swirl (G3) over this track. That afternoon, she raced six furlongs, so today she’ll have to travel one extra furlong. Her only try at this distance resulted in an off the board finish.

#4 SHAR RAN is a lightly raced daughter of MUNNINGS that has won three of her five lifetime races. Last time out, she took the field gate to wire in an allowance race going this distance over this track. Even though she got a clear and easy lead that afternoon, she has proven she can stalk the pace and be effective. Tactical filly makes her graded stakes debut in this spot.

#5 APOLOGYNOTACCEPTED makes her debut for the Brendan Walsh barn. Her last race (under the conditioning of Bill Mott) came on July 30, when she was well beaten in the Grade 3 Shuvee Handicap at Saratoga. The good news is this gal is undefeated (three-for-three) over the Gulfstream dirt and trainer Walsh wins at a 29% rate with runners making their first start for his barn. That said, her speed figures are low compared to the other main contenders in here.

#6 BODACIOUS BABE finished two lengths behind #3 RICH MOMMY in the Sugar Swirl (G3) last month, but she was making just her first start in five months. Trainer Jane Cibelli wins at a 29% clip with runners making their second start off a break longer than 180 days, so there is reason to believe this mare can take a step forward with a race under her belt in this form cycle. Eclipse award finalist Jose Ortiz rides. 

#7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL is the one to beat after a solid second place finish behind LEWIS BAY in the Rampart (G3). She loves Gulfstream Park (seven-for-11), with four wins at this quirky seven furlong distance. Her career best Beyer Speed Figure (103) came when winning the Princess Rooney (G2) over this track in the summer.

#8 SPICE LADY is the most lightly raced runner in the field with just three lifetime starts. This Todd Pletcher trainee comes off a sharp five-and-half-length allowance score as the odds on favorite, going this distance over this track. She could take a step forward and run a big one with a race under her belt this year, or ‘bounce’ off that big effort. Tough call.

#9 MAGALIE won an allowance race going this distance over a ‘good’ dirt surface just 17 days ago. She wheels back quickly for this race against much, much tougher company and will need to step up her game to be effective.

#10 NONNA MELA, the second Todd Pletcher entrant in the field, finished third (behind #7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL) in the Rampart (G3). Before that, this one-turn specialist ran an even fifth in the Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland.

#11 MOONLIT PROMISE is a ‘synthetic freak’ who is six-for-nine over the all-weather surface at Woodbine. Last time out, this gal won the Bessarabian Stakes (G2) at Woodbine and defeated six other rivals in the Ontario Fashion Stakes (G3) going six furlongs in the start before that. If she likes the dirt, she’s an interesting one to consider for trainer Josie Carroll, who is one of the top conditioners at Woodbine.

#12 MONEY OR LOVE finished four lengths behind #7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL in October and was soundly defeated in her last start, a Florida-bred stakes event on November 11. She sports only one workout since that last race and has not been competitive against graded stakes company before. Longshot.

SELECTIONS

1. #1 MARLEY’S FREEDOM – Exits an outstanding race.
2. #7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL – Course specialist.
3. #6 BODACIOUS BABE – May run a big one second start off the layoff.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #11 MOONLIT PROMISE – Multiple graded stakes winner at Woodbine.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my four selections in exactas and make a token win bet on my top pick with the remaining two dollars I have left.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$4 Exacta Box: #1 MARLEY’S FREEDOM and #6 BODACIOUS BABE and #7 CURLIN’S APPROVAL and #11 MOONLIT PROMISE ($48).

$2 Win: #1 MARLEY’S FREEDOM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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